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View Full Version : I might have figured a pattern out of when you can expect a game gift


Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 06:47 PM
I have been trying for a few days seeing if I could find a pattern in gift drops and I thought I had one yesterday, but I'm not sure if valve is changing algorithms daily or not.

So far with what I have gotten today I think the next gift drop will be at 11:21:15-45 about 15-45 seconds in synced to est standard (http://wwp.eastern-standard-time.com/) 21 mins after the current hour.
This is a theory and I'm not sure if it's correct, but so far the data has been correct twice in a row after the first start time(so 3 times in a row giving games). I also do not think that this is the only time that it might happen, but the one the data suggests a gift drop will happen.

If you wish to try and see if this is correct simply trigger a gift drop(completing a objective on an account) at 18 mins after the next hour(10:18 est).

I also ask that if you participate at the time to post what the outcome was.

update:
I did not get a gift this time, but I also did it earlier than before(close to the min change). I also thought it could have something to do with seconds along with mins and I think that might have been proved with bibs getting a gift about half way through the minute. Me not getting it does not disprove the theory yet, because I think I did it earlier than before and bibs did it about the time and got it.

After testing and yesterday I got dota 2 at 6:56 and another game at 12:56 which had me thinking around 1 hr and 13 mins difference which after I got my first game today(dumb luck) at 7:09 I thought 8:22. We were doing more before then and a game hit at 7:12 bringing it to 1 hr 3 min difference. I then again tried at 9:15 and another game hit. The last time I was ready earlier and did it faster and I think that might be why I did not get a game.

I will test again here in 16 mins and see if it works.

Update 2:

Ok well that did not work, but it's not completely bunk yet. This was based on the assumption of 1 hr 3 mins exactly with no second change. To this point I have been monitoring min and guessing seconds, but now I'm monitoring secs with mins too. Based on what bibs did it was around 20-30 secs in and I did it at 20 secs. I think the last test would be to do around 12:24:40-50 secs after. If it's wrong then I give up lol.

Update:3

Well I got 50% off Red Faction: Armageddon. It could have been dumb luck, a actual pattern that changed, It still works and I'm just getting the seconds wrong, the algorithm is more complicated and is rotating or it is random(I doubt that)

Bibs
12-23-2011, 06:59 PM
I would really like to test this, unfortunately I have no objectives to do right now and no coal to craft. I'll try to see if I have friends who would give me coal to test your theory.

Edit: I will craft 7 coals in 18 minutes from now, correct? Add me on steam if you want to.

http://steamcommunity.com/id/profilecraft

Second Edit:

I JUST WON DOTA 2!

I WOULD LIKE TO SAY THAT THIS REALLY WORKED AND I GOT DOTA 2 :D!

graspee
12-23-2011, 07:13 PM
This reminds me of crafting HQ (high quality) items in final fantasy xi. In that game, people swear that facing a certain direction or wearing the appropriate elemental staff while crafting etc. helped them. The moonphase in the game has a real effect on whether you get HQ or not, but nothing else is known for sure to. It doesn't stop people theorising a lot though! :D

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:16 PM
Did it work ?

Optimus357
12-23-2011, 07:16 PM
The last time someone "predicted" a random pattern in relation to Steam it turned out they had insider information and ended up getting VAC banned. This either won't work or the data has been leaked. P.S. I don't believe it will work.

Spaceguy5
12-23-2011, 07:16 PM
Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:18 PM
Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|


It's christmas dude you got to believe.

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:18 PM
HE got dota 2 for god sake

Bill4Dead
12-23-2011, 07:20 PM
so did anyone try this?

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:20 PM
so did anyone try this?

Look like he did

Bill4Dead
12-23-2011, 07:22 PM
Look like he did

he who?

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:23 PM
he who?

Bibs , some post up of you

Bill4Dead
12-23-2011, 07:24 PM
Bibs , some post up of you

wow... youre saying he got dota 2?

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:25 PM
wow... youre saying he got dota 2?

I was refreshing at 10:17 and at 10:18 DOTA 2 appears in his inventory.

DassJennir
12-23-2011, 07:28 PM
I was refreshing at 10:17 and at 10:18 DOTA 2 appears in his inventory.

I will try this soon haha Now i have to.

kira.necro
12-23-2011, 07:28 PM
Did it work? For real?

JimmyMcNulty
12-23-2011, 07:32 PM
Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|

where is the conspiracy?

RicenChicken
12-23-2011, 07:34 PM
Dota 2 - hardware survey.


brand new account stating he seen it, other person isn't on to be excited.

I think its fake.

Cronos Dage
12-23-2011, 07:35 PM
Why do I never get the hardware survey popup? Grr, I did the other survey too and Dota 2 hasn't appeared in my e-mail.

Bibs
12-23-2011, 07:36 PM
Dota 2 - hardware survey.


brand new account stating he seen it, other person isn't on to be excited.

I think its fake.

It's definitely not fake, I just got DOTA 2 by crafting 7 coals in the time he specified :).

Spaceguy5
12-23-2011, 07:36 PM
where is the conspiracy?

People trying to crack the methodology behind 'random' systems. Unless they made the system ridiculously simple, no one except those at Valve should know nor be able to figure out how it works.

Biohazard5
12-23-2011, 07:37 PM
It's definitely not fake, I just got DOTA 2 by crafting 7 coals in the time he specified :).


Pissed me off yea lol

Europhoria
12-23-2011, 07:41 PM
Yeah I crafted a golden wrench using this method... The first reply looks like those hair regain spam adverts you get in your email.

TheInsaneDump
12-23-2011, 07:44 PM
I got Skyrim...and then I took an arrow to the knee.

andy rofl
12-23-2011, 07:45 PM
I got Skyrim...and then I woke up.

I was expecting an arrow-to-the-knee joke

andy rofl
12-23-2011, 07:47 PM
Say what now?

When you said "I got skyrim" I was expecting an arrow to the knee joke to finish the sentence off.

snesmaster40
12-23-2011, 07:49 PM
When you said "I got skyrim" I was expecting an arrow to the knee joke to finish the sentence off.

A good thing he didn't put the arrow to the knee joke because that joke is just horrible

andy rofl
12-23-2011, 07:52 PM
A good thing he didn't put the arrow to the knee joke because that joke is just horrible

Finally someone who gets it. +rep

shooter17
12-23-2011, 07:59 PM
definitely not true
why would valve ever link the game drops to time?
AS if they would expect no one to figure it out

Bibs
12-23-2011, 08:00 PM
Yeah I crafted a golden wrench using this method... The first reply looks like those hair regain spam adverts you get in your email.

You can check my inventory if you want, but obviously you can believe in other ways for me to get DOTA 2. I really have no reason to lie about that, I crafted 7 coals in the time he said and I got DOTA 2. Could be that his theory works, or it was just a coincidence.

Anyways, believe what you want :).

definitely not true
why would valve ever link the game drops to time?
AS if they would expect no one to figure it out

They already did that once :p. TF2 Golden Wrenches.

Lugia
12-23-2011, 08:03 PM
Im going to try this in 19 minutes.
Have 17 coal, so it wont hurt that much. Dont expect Valve to do one gift dump in 2 weeks.

AraxisHT
12-23-2011, 08:06 PM
So what's the pattern?

Captain Chirac
12-23-2011, 08:08 PM
The ones mocking 9/11 conspiracy theories are the first ones trying this ♥♥♥♥ out. Typical and hilarious.

Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 08:08 PM
Sorry I got very distracted and I posted the theory. I also think valve has been changing the algorithm daily, but I might be wrong.

Kendo
12-23-2011, 08:09 PM
its true, I almost crafted skyrim at the precise second..but an arrow became lodged in my knee preventing me from making it

Lugia
12-23-2011, 08:11 PM
The ones mocking 9/11 conspiracy theories are the first ones trying this ♥♥♥♥ out. Typical and hilarious.

Yeah, and I am, right?

Wont hurt doing this. I have 17 coal and all the games I want, so yea, lets do this.

The Hollies
12-23-2011, 08:11 PM
People trying to crack the methodology behind 'random' systems. Unless they made the system ridiculously simple, no one except those at Valve should know nor be able to figure out how it works.

They managed to crack the "random" system for Golden Wrenches before.

Citrinate
12-23-2011, 08:16 PM
They managed to crack the "random" system for Golden Wrenches before.

No one cracked anything. That information was leaked and the users who exploited it were banned.

The two events are completely different though. Back then they used that system to prolong the event; and needed to use it due to the limited and low supply of golden wrenches. Here that's not a problem.

Captain Chirac
12-23-2011, 08:17 PM
I will tell everyone I know about this trick. This pattern seems very credible and worth blindly believing in.
Help us craft our coals the right way!
Great thread is great.

AraxisHT
12-23-2011, 08:17 PM
So is the next drop in 3 minutes? Or do I not understand?

EddieZaic
12-23-2011, 08:18 PM
Those that "won" DOTA2 only got the beta, they still have to buy it.

mathadawg
12-23-2011, 08:18 PM
So is the next drop in 3 minutes? Or do I not understand?

If we are to buy into his theory, then yes. It would be at 11:21PM eastern, or in 3 minutes.

TheInsaneDump
12-23-2011, 08:18 PM
Craft your coal by 11:21 EST and there's a 100% chance you'll receive the Tin Foil Hat!

AraxisHT
12-23-2011, 08:21 PM
I just crafted (for science) and got a Coupon.

paulthegreen
12-23-2011, 08:22 PM
coupon

DassJennir
12-23-2011, 08:23 PM
Got -50% GTA San Andreas. Oh snap, already have it. Anyone want this useless coupon? I have one -33% any Valve game too, useless as well.

Spaceguy5
12-23-2011, 08:23 PM
Crafted for the lolz and got Shadowgrounds. Looks like a ♥♥♥♥ game, but it's better than a ♥♥♥♥ coupon.

Captain Chirac
12-23-2011, 08:23 PM
Okay guys I just did this at 05:21:15-45 (GMT-2) and got DOTA2 + Skyrim at once. I also got a -99% coupon for Saints Row 3 at the same time, but that's a pure rip-off in my opinion (game doesn't seem that great, honestly. I'll trade it for one coal with someone on Steam).

+rep OP.

Lugia
12-23-2011, 08:23 PM
Couponz

Im not mad but...

Yea....

AraxisHT
12-23-2011, 08:25 PM
tbh, I expected a coupon. I'd crafted twice before this and got Dungeons of Dredmore and Jurrasic Park, so I figured this was worth the science.

TheInsaneDump
12-23-2011, 08:25 PM
Wait, wait, wait guys! The OP clearly meant 12:21 PM! Not 11:21 PM. I mean, come on, people forgave that preacher when he kept getting the time the world would end wrong. Let's cut this guy some slack!

Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 08:33 PM
Wait, wait, wait guys! The OP clearly meant 12:21 PM! Not 11:21 PM. I mean, come on, people forgave that preacher when he kept getting the time the world would end wrong. Let's cut this guy some slack! Ok well that did not work, but it's not completely bunk yet. This was based on the assumption of 1 hr 3 mins exactly with no second change. To this point I have been monitoring min and guessing seconds, but now I'm monitoring secs with mins too. Based on what bibs did it was around 20-30 secs in and I did it at 20 secs. I think the last test would be to do around 12:24:40-50 secs after. If it's wrong then I give up lol.

tm955
12-23-2011, 08:34 PM
Crafted for the lolz and got Shadowgrounds. Looks like a ♥♥♥♥ game, but it's better than a ♥♥♥♥ coupon.

Just crafted and got Shadowgrounds Survivor

scott1974
12-23-2011, 08:37 PM
Okay guys I just did this at 05:21:15-45 (GMT-2) and got DOTA2 + Skyrim at once. I also got a -99% coupon for Saints Row 3 at the same time, but that's a pure rip-off in my opinion (game doesn't seem that great, honestly. I'll trade it for one coal with someone on Steam).

+rep OP.LOL I almost believed you.

Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 08:41 PM
Crafted for the lolz and got Shadowgrounds. Looks like a ♥♥♥♥ game, but it's better than a ♥♥♥♥ coupon. My question to you is around what second on the clock?

DInosaurBatman
12-23-2011, 08:41 PM
I think coupons and games are determined to be given out in the same way.

You have a 1/4 chance of receiving a "gift", which is either a game or a coupon. Then, it probably randomly generates a number (usually 4) to determine which you get.

Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 08:43 PM
I think coupons and games are determined to be given out in the same way.

You have a 1/4 chance of receiving a "gift", which is either a game or a coupon. Then, it probably randomly generates a number (usually 4) to determine which you get.Based on day 1 and 2 I would have agreed, but not day 3 and 4.

DInosaurBatman
12-23-2011, 08:44 PM
Based on day 1 and 2 I would have agreed, but not day 3 and 4.

Well, that's only for achievements (3/4 is coal). I assume you're crafting coal to get the times so precise.

MonkeySeeker
12-23-2011, 08:54 PM
I just got an achievement at 4:50 (UK time) and got a game, even if it was just Flight Control HD

tm955
12-23-2011, 09:00 PM
midnight got a game, Alien Breed 2: Assault

anelaidlives
12-23-2011, 09:09 PM
Given the fiasco with the golden wrench, I'm not entirely skeptical that this is complete bunk, but I don't know if Valve would do this again after the ♥♥♥♥storm raised by that.

Then again, they did hire the guy that leaked it so maybe he's behind this.

Mr_Keroro
12-23-2011, 09:39 PM
Well the theory could have been one of a hundred different things, but I thought I was onto something.

wexer9
12-23-2011, 10:05 PM
[Valve sees this, changes algorithm]

jcj64200031
12-23-2011, 10:20 PM
did you know that pigeons are superstitious? If they are fed while doing something like walking backwards or cleaning a certain part of their wings, they'll start doing those actions again when they want to be fed again.

kinda something to think about in this thread. :rolleyes:

AraxisHT
12-23-2011, 10:25 PM
did you know that pigeons are superstitious? If they are fed while doing something like walking backwards or cleaning a certain part of their wings, they'll start doing those actions again when they want to be fed again.

kinda something to think about in this thread. :rolleyes:

That's not superstition, that's classical conditioning.

Captain Chirac
12-24-2011, 06:54 AM
did you know that pigeons are superstitious? If they are fed while doing something like walking backwards or cleaning a certain part of their wings, they'll start doing those actions again when they want to be fed again.

kinda something to think about in this thread. :rolleyes:

I think that's a sign of intelligence, something that the people who believed this theory lack of.

graspee
12-24-2011, 09:50 AM
That's not superstition, that's classical conditioning.

It's not classical conditioning it's operant conditioning.

Parlock
12-24-2011, 10:09 AM
It's not classical conditioning it's operant conditioning.

This. They're being rewarded, not associating.

freakn1ck
12-24-2011, 10:19 AM
RNG Y U DO DIS

Rkilbane20
12-24-2011, 10:21 AM
So when's the next time to do it?

Buliso
12-24-2011, 10:26 AM
There is no pattern, the only thing we are able to know is that every time an achievment is accomplished, the user has a 1 in 4 chance of a game.

kira.necro
12-28-2011, 07:40 AM
By Crafting I got CS:S. I defend it's completely random;

Doctor Pony
12-28-2011, 07:41 AM
Placebo effect. Heard of it?

Edeslash
12-28-2011, 07:42 AM
It's random, guise.

Demon Wraith
12-28-2011, 07:44 AM
Placebo effect. Heard of it?

Have you? Unless the OP is suggesting this method cures aches and pains, it's not placebo. Placebo is about medicine.

Sovelin
12-28-2011, 07:50 AM
It is presented as randomly generated, and is thus required by law to be randomly generated. I believe crunchyfrog has mentioned this several times in other posts. Valve would be in huge legal trouble if it wasn't random. Also, a sample size of, what, 4, and you have a pattern? Come on.

Doctor Pony
12-28-2011, 07:53 AM
Have you? Unless the OP is suggesting this method cures aches and pains, it's not placebo. Placebo is about medicine.

Placebos don't cure anything. I was talking about observer bias. They're looking for and finding a pattern that doesn't exist.

Sovelin
12-28-2011, 07:55 AM
Placebos don't cure anything. I was talking about observer bias. They're looking for and finding a pattern that doesn't exist.

To be fair, that is not observer bias. It is closer to a Pygmalion effect, though even that wouldn't apply here.

Doctor Pony
12-28-2011, 07:57 AM
I couldn't figure out what it was called, so I figured placebo was closest to what I meant.

We could just call it paranoid delusion, too. xD

Demon Wraith
12-28-2011, 08:02 AM
We could just call it paranoid delusion, too. xD
Are you now suggesting that the OP thinks Valve is out to get him?

This is apophenia. Or a type I error.

hxg
12-28-2011, 08:07 AM
*Facepalm*
Any basic knowledge on programming? There are specific odds for what you get, however, this is still random. Even though they use a time based Math.Random() [Yeah insider here you go]

TF2Jo
12-28-2011, 08:12 AM
valve did like this with golden wrenches (big big proofs on it, and DrunkenF00l got even banned for getting a golden wrench that way), why it should be different with gifts. It's all cheated and predetermined. So don't even bother random crafting and follow this guide.

Sovelin
12-28-2011, 08:17 AM
valve did like this with golden wrenches (big big proofs on it, and DrunkenF00l got even banned for getting a golden wrench that way), why it should be different with gifts. It's all cheated and predetermined. So don't even bother random crafting and follow this guide.

It's illegal.

SweetNothing
12-28-2011, 08:44 AM
...apophenia...

I have been trying to remember this term for a while now. Thank you for posting it!

+ rep

Doctor Pony
12-28-2011, 08:45 AM
Are you now suggesting that the OP thinks Valve is out to get him?

This is apophenia. Or a type I error.

Yes! That's the one I was thinking of!
Thank you! xD +rep

cl4ym4n
12-28-2011, 08:53 AM
Everytime I craft a coupon it almost makes me puke. Does that count as a pattern, too? :confused:

Satoru
12-28-2011, 08:59 AM
The parallels between the golden wrench and this current system are almost zero. The Golden Wrenches were not random but were 'activated' at specific times during the day. Since activation of the Golden Wrenches were tied to unlocking of the Engineer stuff, they needed to be spaced out properly so that things were unlocked more evenly. they probably could have put in a once per day randomizer instead of a totally fixed timing system.

Note in this scenario there is no actual requirement to time the release of items/coupons/games. Valve can simply control the statistical odds of who gets what on the fly just like casinos do with their slot machines. Over the length of the sale they will simply be setting parameters as to what you odds are for any particular gift.

Any patterns people see are self-made and are what gambling establishments use to ensure they extract the maximum amount of money out of you.

TF2Jo
12-28-2011, 04:35 PM
It's illegal.

Why???

That dude guessed (or leaked) their algorythm, so if they would do random for real, they would have no problem at all.

Sovelin
12-28-2011, 04:44 PM
Why???

That dude guessed (or leaked) their algorythm, so if they would do random for real, they would have no problem at all.

I thought I hit quote on a dif post. I dunno about the wrench thing, but a non-random pattern to a contest like this one would be illegal.