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View Full Version : Whats the chance of unboxing unusuals?


Captain Ladle
07-31-2012, 03:46 PM
Is it 1%?

GammaJK
07-31-2012, 03:46 PM
Yes.
For 100 crates, you have a 65% chance.

cureforhumanity
07-31-2012, 03:48 PM
Also be forewarned, people have opened hundreds of crates with no unusuals, and opened 50 crates and gotten two or three. Uncrating here and there in the hopes of getting an unusual is almost certainly a waste of your resources. (unless you just like uncrating) It would be more effective to save up keys and buy one you like.

VodkaGR
07-31-2012, 03:49 PM
Yes.
For 100 crates, you have a 65% chance.

For 100 crates,200 crates,1000 crates or a gazillion trillions crates ,your chance will still be 1%

Zortalist
07-31-2012, 03:49 PM
Yes.
For 100 crates, you have a 65% chance.
For 100 crates,200 crates,1000 crates or a gazillion trillions crates ,your chance will still be 1%

Here we go again :rolleyes:

Zuppan
07-31-2012, 03:51 PM
Here we go again :rolleyes:

I really hope it won't happen again, but it most probably will.

Now that I bothered to post, the chance is 1% no matter how many crates you open.

GammaJK
07-31-2012, 03:52 PM
For 100 crates,200 crates,1000 crates or a gazillion trillions crates ,your chance will still be 1%

Actually, it's 1% for ONE crate. The more you unbox, the more likely you are to get one. Unboxing 1000 crates in a row gives you a much higher chance than unboxing 1. That's how probability works.
Edit, because I know you'll misunderstand it - the chance for each box will still be 1% but the more you unbox in a row, the higher your chances are for getting one.

Thrillho007
07-31-2012, 03:53 PM
Eleventy-million percent!

Chrisjd10
07-31-2012, 03:53 PM
Here we go again :rolleyes:
0.01/1 = 1% for 1 crate
0.02/2 = 0.01/1 = 1%
1/100 = 0.01/1 = 1%
10/1000 = 0.01/1 = 1%
ect.

Qwackers
07-31-2012, 04:05 PM
To the 1% people: by the same logic you could say that the odds of flipping a coin 100 times and getting a head is 50%.

The chance of opening one crate and not getting an unusual is 0.99 = 99%.
The chance of opening two crates and not getting an unusual is 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.99^2 = .9801 = 98.1%

And continuing from that:

The chance of opening 100 crates and not getting an unusual is 0.99^100 = .366 = 36.6%

Thus the chance of opening 100 crates and getting at least one unusual is 1 - 0.366 = 0.634 = 63.4%

Yeah.

Rammite
07-31-2012, 04:09 PM
ITT: People pretend they passed thier statistics class.
EDIT: Okay, this statement isn't 100% true anymore because I was ninjaed by someone who actually knows what he's doing.



The chance you will get a single unusual from at least one crate is 1%.

If you open 10 crates, the chance is higher due to you proccing that 1% chance more.

If you open 1000 crates, your chance to get at least one crate is much much higher than 1%, due to proccing that base 1% a thousand times.

The culmuatative chance goes up every time you open a crate.

If you flip a coin once, the chance you will get at least one Head is 50%. Flip it again, and the chance you will get at least one Head is 75%. A third time nears 90%.




If you open a single crate, the chance that that one specific crate will have an unusual is 1%.

If you open your thousandth crate, that chance that that one specific crate will have an unsuaul is 1%.

The induvidual chance never changes ever, period.

If you roll a dice once, it has a 1/6th chance to roll a 5. If you roll it again, its cahcne to roll a 5 for that one specific roll doesn't change at all.

This part is where people screw up, and it's why people often mess up chances. People tend to think that prior outcomes magically affect future outcomes. Rolling three 6's does not change the chance to roll a 6 on the next roll, but people are blissfully unaware of this. Vegas exploits this common misconception.





Now stop dicking around with topics you've only seen in picture books.

Captain Blades
07-31-2012, 04:17 PM
Thank you rammite, and also OP, i remember seeing you in another thread about this very same topic, so i know that you posted a hot-topic thread title, with a 7char message, just so you could watch the thread blow up with people arguing over it.

Well played.

duskull007
07-31-2012, 04:33 PM
Ladle, haven't you made a post like this before?

ctb
07-31-2012, 04:38 PM
The same chance of finding logic on SPUF.

VodkaGR
07-31-2012, 04:41 PM
To the 1% people: by the same logic you could say that the odds of flipping a coin 100 times and getting a head is 50%.

The chance of opening one crate and not getting an unusual is 0.99 = 99%.
The chance of opening two crates and not getting an unusual is 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.99^2 = .9801 = 98.1%

And continuing from that:

The chance of opening 100 crates and not getting an unusual is 0.99^100 = .366 = 36.6%

Thus the chance of opening 100 crates and getting at least one unusual is 1 - 0.366 = 0.634 = 63.4%

Yeah.

That's the chance of finding at least one unusual

I was talking about the chance each box has...common misunderstanding

Either way chances are useless.You might open a million crates and still find no unusual

HotShot888
07-31-2012, 04:42 PM
It's always funny to see people saying that it's 1% no matter how many crates.

Shradow
07-31-2012, 04:42 PM
I don't remember statistics. So is what Qwackers said correct?

HotShot888
07-31-2012, 04:45 PM
I don't remember statistics. So is what Qwackers said correct?

Yes

Chance for unboxing an unusual from X crates:

1 - 0.99^X

For 200 crates, as an example

1 - 0.99^200 = 1 - 0.13 = 0.87 = 87%

I know someone who unboxed 218 and got none rofl

It never reaches 100%, but it can get very close to it

Thrillho007
07-31-2012, 04:46 PM
I don't remember statistics. So is what Qwackers said correct?

At least 1% of it.

Shradow
07-31-2012, 04:46 PM
At least 1% of it.

Dohoho.

Even for the people who aren't correct, attempting math on SPUF is a feat in itself.

Morax
07-31-2012, 04:50 PM
I believe so, yes, though you can try your luck safely here (http://www.kongregate.com/games/stripedypaper/tf2-crate-sim)

Tip: Holding space is extremely efficient.

Thrillho007
07-31-2012, 04:50 PM
Dohoho.

Even for the people who aren't correct, attempting math on SPUF is a feat in itself.

It just doesn't add up... the community is rather divided over it. Sine of the times, really. :cool:

mapleyort
07-31-2012, 04:55 PM
Look, say you rolled a die forty-nine times and got a one each time.

Now, what is the probability of getting not-a-one next time?

Technically, 1/6, because that's how dice work.

However, the probability of rolling "fifty ones in a row" is 1/x where x=(6^50). That seems really low!

This is called Gambler's fallacy, the belief that the grande scheme affect individual situations. These talking dinosaurs (http://www.qwantz.com/index.php?comic=298) explain it pretty well.

Point is, it's unlikely for any given crate to have an unusual, but it is also unlikely that in 200 crates there is not one unusual.

Clevinger
07-31-2012, 05:09 PM
1% chance of an unusual from any crate.

-Zenamez-
07-31-2012, 05:24 PM
I unboxed 12 and got my first Unusual from it. A good friend of mine unboxed around 144 and got his first unusual. There's no set algorithm. It's just VALVe's lottery.

-Zenamez-
07-31-2012, 05:26 PM
It just doesn't add up... the community is rather divided over it. Sine of the times, really. :cool:

We've got to get to the root of the problem cos it's terrible otherwise.

Dr. Sandman
07-31-2012, 05:31 PM
1 crate is 1%
You have .01%^100, or 1.0e-200%, chance to unbox 100 unusuals.

Why did I post this? Because statistics are pointless, and my post is about statistics.

Gyokuyoutama
07-31-2012, 05:43 PM
We never proved that the chance per crate is 1%. And no amount of data can prove that this is the correct percentage (barring examination of the item drop code). Therefore we can't be sure of any of the probabilities involved in any crate opening scenarios.

I have a PhD in Mathematics you can trust me on this.

Also there's no proof that these events are independent and if they aren't independent it's too hard to even try to figure out what is going on.

Parralelex
07-31-2012, 05:48 PM
Chance of getting 1 or more unusuals after opening x crates:

1-((.99)^x)

# of crates required to get a y chance of opening 1 or more unusual (y being a number between 0 and 1, 1=100%, .5=50%, ect.):
ln(1-y)/(ln(.99)

Maths

Parralelex
07-31-2012, 05:49 PM
We've got to get to the root of the problem cos it's terrible otherwise.

Puns like this are so derivitave, honestly. Is it so integral that we multiply the problem of bad puns by repeating a seemingly infinite number of times the same jokes? The target audience is honestly imaginary.

Gyokuyoutama
07-31-2012, 05:52 PM
But anyway, these threads always make me think that Valve should add some sort of Monty Hall minigame to TF2, so that we can discuss the probabilities on that one.

ACubeGod
07-31-2012, 05:53 PM
We've got to get to the root of the problem cos it's terrible otherwise.

Yeah, it's really cotangent of them to assume an arcsin like they have. They should really (sin^2)+(cos^2) = 1.



...Damn, I'm really bad at this.

Thrillho007
07-31-2012, 05:55 PM
Yeah, it's really cotangent of them to assume an arcsin like they have. They should really (sin^2)+(cos^2) = 1.



...Damn, I'm really bad at this.

You'd think the god of cubes would have this one squared away. :p

ACubeGod
07-31-2012, 06:00 PM
You'd think the god of cubes would have this one squared away. :p

MATH PUN

Gyokuyoutama
07-31-2012, 06:00 PM
Yeah, it's really cotangent of them to assume an arcsin like they have. They should really (sin^2)+(cos^2) = 1.



...Damn, I'm really bad at this.

Yeah the category of mathematical puns has manifold examples but some of them can be kind of dense. Maybe you can stalk or ring up some mathematical nerds to pick up on the syntax from their fields. There has to be a group of them in your neighborhood. By which I mean near your Hausdorff.

Tito Shivan
08-01-2012, 12:28 AM
And then we have the obligatory 'I opened 1.000 crates, where is my guaranteed unusual Valve?'

It reminds me of the old drop system, where you had a 25% chance of a drop every 15 minutes... Yet people found themselves in looong drop drought times, while statistics said otherwise


I have a PhD in Mathematics you can trust me on this.
Seems legit...

lunarpking
08-01-2012, 12:30 AM
I heard it's around .92% for newer crates, 1% for older and around 5% for event crates or salvaged crates.

VodkaGR
08-01-2012, 12:32 AM
I have a new one

32/2*(10+6) = ?

Let the battle begin

Parralelex
08-01-2012, 12:59 AM
I have a new one

32/2*(10+6) = ?

Let the battle begin

20 units.

mmm pi
08-01-2012, 01:08 AM
I have a new one

32/2*(10+6) = ?

Let the battle begin

Depending on how it is interpreted, it can either be 16*16=256 or 32/32=1.

raineater
08-01-2012, 01:37 AM
There is actually no evidence to suggest it is 1%.

Automaton458
08-01-2012, 01:45 AM
I heard it's around .92% for newer crates, 1% for older and around 5% for event crates or salvaged crates.

So the chance of unboxing an unusual depends on the crat...

Oh wait, you're joking.

Anyway, in the sim, I had to spend $1415 (or 566 keys) to get, from a crate #26:

UNUSUAL BRAINIAC HAIRPIECE
Effect: Purple Energy

So you may spend even $1000+ in keys and still don't get any unusual hat.