I might have figured a pattern out of when you can expect a game gift

Mr_Keroro · 12-23-2011, 06:47 PM

I have been trying for a few days seeing if I could find a pattern in gift drops and I thought I had one yesterday, but I'm not sure if valve is changing algorithms daily or not.

So far with what I have gotten today I think the next gift drop will be at 11:21:15-45 about 15-45 seconds in synced to est standard 21 mins after the current hour.
This is a theory and I'm not sure if it's correct, but so far the data has been correct twice in a row after the first start time(so 3 times in a row giving games). I also do not think that this is the only time that it might happen, but the one the data suggests a gift drop will happen.

If you wish to try and see if this is correct simply trigger a gift drop(completing a objective on an account) at 18 mins after the next hour(10:18 est).

I also ask that if you participate at the time to post what the outcome was.

update:
I did not get a gift this time, but I also did it earlier than before(close to the min change). I also thought it could have something to do with seconds along with mins and I think that might have been proved with bibs getting a gift about half way through the minute. Me not getting it does not disprove the theory yet, because I think I did it earlier than before and bibs did it about the time and got it.

After testing and yesterday I got dota 2 at 6:56 and another game at 12:56 which had me thinking around 1 hr and 13 mins difference which after I got my first game today(dumb luck) at 7:09 I thought 8:22. We were doing more before then and a game hit at 7:12 bringing it to 1 hr 3 min difference. I then again tried at 9:15 and another game hit. The last time I was ready earlier and did it faster and I think that might be why I did not get a game.

I will test again here in 16 mins and see if it works.

Update 2:

Ok well that did not work, but it's not completely bunk yet. This was based on the assumption of 1 hr 3 mins exactly with no second change. To this point I have been monitoring min and guessing seconds, but now I'm monitoring secs with mins too. Based on what bibs did it was around 20-30 secs in and I did it at 20 secs. I think the last test would be to do around 12:24:40-50 secs after. If it's wrong then I give up lol.

Update:3

Well I got 50% off Red Faction: Armageddon. It could have been dumb luck, a actual pattern that changed, It still works and I'm just getting the seconds wrong, the algorithm is more complicated and is rotating or it is random(I doubt that)

Bibs · 12-23-2011, 06:59 PM

I would really like to test this, unfortunately I have no objectives to do right now and no coal to craft. I'll try to see if I have friends who would give me coal to test your theory.

Edit: I will craft 7 coals in 18 minutes from now, correct? Add me on steam if you want to.

http://steamcommunity.com/id/profilecraft

Second Edit:

I JUST WON DOTA 2!

I WOULD LIKE TO SAY THAT THIS REALLY WORKED AND I GOT DOTA 2

!

graspee · 12-23-2011, 07:13 PM

This reminds me of crafting HQ (high quality) items in final fantasy xi. In that game, people swear that facing a certain direction or wearing the appropriate elemental staff while crafting etc. helped them. The moonphase in the game has a real effect on whether you get HQ or not, but nothing else is known for sure to. It doesn't stop people theorising a lot though!

Spaceguy5 · 12-23-2011, 07:16 PM

Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|

Biohazard5 · 12-23-2011, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spaceguy5

Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|

It's christmas dude you got to believe.

JimmyMcNulty · 12-23-2011, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spaceguy5

Oh god, not conspiracy theories again.

I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =|

where is the conspiracy?

RicenChicken · 12-23-2011, 07:34 PM

Dota 2 - hardware survey.

brand new account stating he seen it, other person isn't on to be excited.

I think its fake.

Spaceguy5 · 12-23-2011, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyMcNulty

where is the conspiracy?

People trying to crack the methodology behind 'random' systems. Unless they made the system ridiculously simple, no one except those at Valve should know nor be able to figure out how it works.

Biohazard5 · 12-23-2011, 07:16 PM

Did it work ?

Optimus357 · 12-23-2011, 07:16 PM

The last time someone "predicted" a random pattern in relation to Steam it turned out they had insider information and ended up getting VAC banned. This either won't work or the data has been leaked. P.S. I don't believe it will work.

Biohazard5 · 12-23-2011, 07:18 PM

HE got dota 2 for god sake

Bill4Dead · 12-23-2011, 07:20 PM

so did anyone try this?

Biohazard5 · 12-23-2011, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill4Dead

so did anyone try this?

Look like he did

Bill4Dead · 12-23-2011, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biohazard5

Look like he did

he who?

Biohazard5 · 12-23-2011, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill4Dead

he who?

Bibs , some post up of you

12-23-2011, 06:47 PM	#1
Mr_Keroro Join Date: Jul 2010 Reputation: 68 Posts: 703	I might have figured a pattern out of when you can expect a game gift I have been trying for a few days seeing if I could find a pattern in gift drops and I thought I had one yesterday, but I'm not sure if valve is changing algorithms daily or not. So far with what I have gotten today I think the next gift drop will be at 11:21:15-45 about 15-45 seconds in synced to est standard 21 mins after the current hour. This is a theory and I'm not sure if it's correct, but so far the data has been correct twice in a row after the first start time(so 3 times in a row giving games). I also do not think that this is the only time that it might happen, but the one the data suggests a gift drop will happen. If you wish to try and see if this is correct simply trigger a gift drop(completing a objective on an account) at 18 mins after the next hour(10:18 est). I also ask that if you participate at the time to post what the outcome was. update: I did not get a gift this time, but I also did it earlier than before(close to the min change). I also thought it could have something to do with seconds along with mins and I think that might have been proved with bibs getting a gift about half way through the minute. Me not getting it does not disprove the theory yet, because I think I did it earlier than before and bibs did it about the time and got it. After testing and yesterday I got dota 2 at 6:56 and another game at 12:56 which had me thinking around 1 hr and 13 mins difference which after I got my first game today(dumb luck) at 7:09 I thought 8:22. We were doing more before then and a game hit at 7:12 bringing it to 1 hr 3 min difference. I then again tried at 9:15 and another game hit. The last time I was ready earlier and did it faster and I think that might be why I did not get a game. I will test again here in 16 mins and see if it works. Update 2: Ok well that did not work, but it's not completely bunk yet. This was based on the assumption of 1 hr 3 mins exactly with no second change. To this point I have been monitoring min and guessing seconds, but now I'm monitoring secs with mins too. Based on what bibs did it was around 20-30 secs in and I did it at 20 secs. I think the last test would be to do around 12:24:40-50 secs after. If it's wrong then I give up lol. Update:3 Well I got 50% off Red Faction: Armageddon. It could have been dumb luck, a actual pattern that changed, It still works and I'm just getting the seconds wrong, the algorithm is more complicated and is rotating or it is random(I doubt that) Last edited by Mr_Keroro: 12-23-2011 at 09:29 PM.

12-23-2011, 06:59 PM	#2
Bibs Join Date: Oct 2010 Reputation: 365 Posts: 1,315	I would really like to test this, unfortunately I have no objectives to do right now and no coal to craft. I'll try to see if I have friends who would give me coal to test your theory. Edit: I will craft 7 coals in 18 minutes from now, correct? Add me on steam if you want to. http://steamcommunity.com/id/profilecraft Second Edit: I JUST WON DOTA 2! I WOULD LIKE TO SAY THAT THIS REALLY WORKED AND I GOT DOTA 2 ! Last edited by Bibs: 12-23-2011 at 07:35 PM.

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12-23-2011, 07:13 PM	#3
graspee Join Date: Jul 2011 Reputation: 1167 Posts: 2,832	This reminds me of crafting HQ (high quality) items in final fantasy xi. In that game, people swear that facing a certain direction or wearing the appropriate elemental staff while crafting etc. helped them. The moonphase in the game has a real effect on whether you get HQ or not, but nothing else is known for sure to. It doesn't stop people theorising a lot though!

12-23-2011, 07:16 PM	#4
Spaceguy5 Join Date: Jun 2009 Reputation: 641 Posts: 625	Oh god, not conspiracy theories again. I've heard a great deal in MMOs I've played regarding rare loot =\|

12-23-2011, 07:34 PM	#7
RicenChicken Join Date: Jun 2010 Reputation: 86 Posts: 954	Dota 2 - hardware survey. brand new account stating he seen it, other person isn't on to be excited. I think its fake.

12-23-2011, 07:16 PM	#9
Biohazard5 Join Date: Dec 2011 Reputation: 0 Posts: 45	Did it work ?

12-23-2011, 07:16 PM	#10
Optimus357 Join Date: Feb 2009 Reputation: 142 Posts: 1,131	The last time someone "predicted" a random pattern in relation to Steam it turned out they had insider information and ended up getting VAC banned. This either won't work or the data has been leaked. P.S. I don't believe it will work.

12-23-2011, 07:18 PM	#11
Biohazard5 Join Date: Dec 2011 Reputation: 0 Posts: 45	HE got dota 2 for god sake

12-23-2011, 07:20 PM	#12
Bill4Dead Join Date: Jul 2011 Reputation: 80 Posts: 345	so did anyone try this?