Tux - The Truth.

[J.Gatsby]

Well hello old sport! This thread is designed to give a calm and realistic discussion about the Tux. It will be a bit of a long read, but I sincerely hope you all enjoy since this is my first official thread.

First, let's look at the past. What was the other operating system TF2 was released on? Hmm... Oh yeah, Mac OSX. What item did they release? Earbuds. In the past, Valve released the Earbuds for an extremely limited amount of time. If I am correct, they released them for 3 days, and then re-released them for an even smaller window. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that's how it happened. Regardless, the Earbuds are now an expired promotional item in that they will never be available again, and they are not craftable, un-cratable, or available through the item drop system.

Now with regards to the Tux - let us assume that the same thing happens. Valve gave a larger window of opportunity for you to get your hands on this all-class misc penguin, 2 weeks to be precise. It says on the tf2.com site that you have to get it BY March 1st, which leads me to assume that Friday the Tux will be unavailable, and most likely Valve will release a patch.

The question is - what will that patch contain? Will they take the same route as the Earbuds - thereby making the item unattainable in any way except trading? My thoughts - most likely.

Assuming that happens - we now must look at the basic economics of TF2, or anything for that matter. The most basic economic principle is supply and demand. We know for a FACT that the Tux will be severely outnumbered by the Earbuds. At the time I am writing this (using stats.tf) - there are currently 58,720 Earbuds, and 25,948 Tuxes.
So from that - the math is simple. There is a very small SUPPLY of the Tuxes. The question remains - what will be the DEMAND?

My prediction - the Tuxes will go crazy in prices once they become tradable. Most likely, people will be asking for Earbuds/lower tier unusuals and want to make a huge profit by selling off their little penguin. After a bit, the storm will calm down - and I imagine that the Tux will be eventually valued at approx 15 keys or so. Why? Because I don't think it would sink to a Bills since it is so rare, but I am unsure if it will be able to oust the Almighty Earbuds. That being said, I could be wrong. The Tux could be the next Earbuds, and the stats back it up. At the end of the day, it's all about the demand and what people are willing to pay for the item.

If it turns out that the Tux is the next Earbuds, then fine. But to all those traders out there who are licking their chops waiting for March 1st to roll around - let's show the TF2 community that we actually have a soul and aren't a bunch of greedy - oh who am I kidding...

In any case, thanks for your time and patience - and I sincerely hope that you enjoyed the read. Feel free to comment below!

[rainbow dash™]

Originally Posted by J.Gatsby

WIn the past, Valve released the Earbuds for an extremely limited amount of time. If I am correct, they released them for 3 days, and then re-released them for an even smaller window. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that's how it happened.

According to this fine list of cases of Valve time, Buds were intended to be avaible for only about four days but were obtainable for more than two months.

[TheLemonGod]

I have a feeling another Halo-caust will happen, with people who own Tux's illegally getting them removed, and anybody using the Tux is banned from servers owned by people who don't have the Tux.

So Valve hopefully won't make it tradable

[J.Gatsby]

Originally Posted by rainbow dash™

According to this fine list of cases of Valve time, Buds were intended to be avaible for only about four days but were obtainable for more than two months.

Thank you for the information. This is interesting since now the Tuxes are available for a smaller window than the Buds, hence their rarity still remains above the Earbuds.

[goldnuts]

This is rubbish. There was a lot less people with idle accounts when Earbuds were released. There is also a lot more profiteers now. Earbuds weren't valuable then, so there was less incentive for profit. I am positive there are tens of thousands of them on idle accounts the stats side doesn't know about.

Earbuds became the value they are because they were the best item in TF2, and the only allclass misc at the time. People also relate to them, because they have ipods. And on top of that, they have a nice effect. Demand for them to keep was very high for a long time. They rose further because they became unusual currency and were trusted as being replaceable for cash.

The ONLY way Tux will become anywhere near as valuable as Earbuds, is price manipulation.

THAT is the truth.

[J.Gatsby]

Originally Posted by TheLemonGod

I have a feeling another Halo-caust will happen, with people who own Tux's illegally getting them removed, and anybody using the Tux is banned from servers owned by people who don't have the Tux.

So Valve hopefully won't make it tradable

I may agree with the Halocaust, however I highly doubt that Valve would NOT make them tradable. As I said before, time will tell.

[J.Gatsby]

Originally Posted by goldnuts

This is rubbish. There was a lot less people with idle accounts when Earbuds were released. There is also a lot more profiteers.

Earbuds became the value they are because they were the best item in TF2, and the only allclass misc at the time. People also relate to them, because they have ipods. And on top of that, they have a nice effect.

The ONLY way Tux will become anywhere near as valuable as Earbuds, is price manipulation.

THAT is the truth.

Care to elaborate on what part is rubbish? The basic economics or your simple inability to read? As I said, they will most likely level out below the price of Earbuds.

[goldnuts]

The trying to hype the price. Offers on the Tux have been considerably smaller than you are trying to tell us/

Also, you have one.

[MESA_]

Doubt it.

Tuxes will get no where as valuable as buds or even bills imo.

A few reasons why.

Tuxes simple aren't as good looking as buds or a bill's hat. It's a butt penguin. I doubt anyone's going to go up to you and say nice tux. Not to mention the lack of a particle effect.

Linux is free. It doesn't matter how "hard" it is to use it. Most of the people failing to get a tux are people who've never installed a operating system before or they chose 18GB (Default) in Virtual Machine.

It's not going to happen. Screw stats. There aren't very many uncraftable hitman promo items. Sure they're rare and such but they aren't currency. Most are priced around a bills.

Originally Posted by goldnuts

The trying to hype the price. Offers on the Tux have been considerably smaller than you are trying to tell us/

Also, you have one.

Reminds me of backpack.tf where if you have the item and you're trying to raise the price, you're obviously trying to manipulate prices. His reasoning reminds me of the reasons I've seen listed on trades on outpost as well.

[Fatty Corpuscle]

Originally Posted by goldnuts

The ONLY way Tux will become anywhere near as valuable as Earbuds, is price manipulation.

Somewhere, the faint sound of a spreadsheet guy squealing in delight can be heard.

[J.Gatsby]

Originally Posted by goldnuts

The trying to hype the price. Offers on the Tux have been considerably smaller than you are trying to tell us/

Also, you have one.

Not really hype, simple math. Less Tuxes, more Earbuds - higher prices at the start, most likely lower prices after about a month. Just as the TF2 Economy always goes crazy. Also, I dont plan on selling my Tux, I like my penguin too much.

[Crit-O-Clock]

Originally Posted by goldnuts

This is rubbish. There was a lot less people with idle accounts when Earbuds were released. There is also a lot more profiteers now. Earbuds weren't valuable then, so there was less incentive for profit. I am positive there are tens of thousands of them on idle accounts the stats side doesn't know about.

Earbuds became the value they are because they were the best item in TF2, and the only allclass misc at the time. People also relate to them, because they have ipods. And on top of that, they have a nice effect. Demand for them to keep was very high for a long time. They rose further because they became unusual currency and were trusted as being replaceable for cash.

The ONLY way Tux will become anywhere near as valuable as Earbuds, is price manipulation.

THAT is the truth.

^Agreed.

There's no way that the Tux will be as valuable as buds, or even bill's. Earbuds were released before trading. Before the money driven black market economy took off. Before creating hordes of alt accounts was common.

There are people churning out countless Tuxes as we speak, on free steam account after free steam account. If Tuxes are worth anything these people will make their accounts premium as needed to sell off their penguins.

Buds would not be valuable if people expected them to be worth money, and had two weeks to farm them. The fact that they weren't expected to be valuable is what made them valuable.

['ello']

I don't think people will be banging down the doors to have a penguin. I would think most of the high profile traders will already have them (or multiple) and as such not giving up double digit keys or earbuds for them.

I say high profile traders because those are the ones who really control the price. The demand might be there for the average trader but the average trader isn't going to have the amount of keys or buds to drive the price of this promo past a bud.

Rarity doesn't mean much.

[Crit-O-Clock]

My guess (if they're tradeable) is that they end up being worth 1 or 2 keys.

The only ones that might end up being semi-valuable are special leveled ones (level 1, level 100), but even those won't go for too much, maybe two or three times more.

Even so, a lot of multi-account idlers are about to make a small fortune by selling off dozens of items worth a key each.

[J.Gatsby]

Originally Posted by Crit-O-Clock

My guess (if they're tradeable) is that they end up being worth 1 or 2 keys.

The only ones that might end up being semi-valuable are special leveled ones (level 1, level 100), but even those won't go for too much, maybe two or three times more.

Even so, a lot of multi-account idlers are about to make a small fortune by selling off dozens of items worth a key each.

Honestly I dont think they will go THAT low - but since you proposed it - care to explain the reasoning?