TF2 item valuation is a bubble waiting to burst

[Salty-b]

It can only burst if it is a bubble. First we need to figure out if the Tf2 economy is a bubble or not.
I think many forget the fact that many use hats and miscs as something to wear on their character and not just to trade with.

[MCMackers]

Items in a video game are never a safe investment because they were never worth anything in the first place. It doesn't matter what happens to the TF2 economy, because the TF2 economy is entirely made up.

[2dor]

1 month ago earbuds where 17 - 18 keys

What happened now ? My internet was down for exactly 1 month.

[Dr. Sandman]

Originally Posted by Dante_Valentine

Another day

Another doom sayer on the tf2 economy

(we have enough of those in the real economy, shut your face we have heard it 100 times before)

Pretty much this. "The end of hats is neigh!" has been one of my personal favorites. Proclaimed by a special individual a month after mannconemy. In his proposed situation, the TF2 economy died last summer. The only difference between his and OP's proposal is that OP doesn't list a specific date, thus preventing us from telling him he is wrong. A shot in the dark is often more accurate than a miss in the light.

[MiKeV]

No bubbles are going to burst.

And it's not really for you to say certain items aren't worth something when they're bought and sold for it every single day.

It's the way things are and there's nothing you can do about it, sorry to burst yer bubble.

[Manpersonguy]

Why would people suddenly "realize" this NOW as opposed to 2 months ago? Why everyone at the same time?

Has this ever happened to any other game? EVER? no.


Seriously, I'm tired of people whining about the "economy" and talking about how it's doomed/BS. Hey, everyone saying that kind of stuff doens't have much in their BP. Not saying anything specific, but it sure isn't a coincidence.

Originally Posted by MCMackers

Items in a video game are never a safe investment because they were never worth anything in the first place. It doesn't matter what happens to the TF2 economy, because the TF2 economy is entirely made up.

Also that's kinda bull. What makes you think valve can just say "HEY I KNOW LETS MAKE EVERYTHING EASILY OBTAINABLE" Or "HAY GUIZE LET'S DELETE EVERY IN GAME ITEM DURRR HURRR"

Either way you get around it, doing that is illegal. You can't have people pay for something, then take it away with no warning. Regardless if the items are real or not, the value is.

[AO.Cazzo]

when people with money are no longer willing to spend it on in game items.

you can see it with the huge devaluation of most unusuals. hats that might have gone for $80-100 are now selling for $50 because who the hell wants another random hat with plasma. Only a few hats "retain their value" like high tier burning. But even those are dropping because the number of new players (ie people who haven't already spent a bunch of money to get the hats they want) with money to spend on hats isn't that large.

Remember when a burning tyrants could easily sell for $800+? See anyone offering near that amount these days? All of the whales are done buying.

As far as the "currency" items; buds, bills, promos. Who knows. People will pay what they think theyre worth. Interest in tf2 will dwindle over time and I'm sure prices will go as well. But when that will be is anyone's guess.


Protip: trade for what you like. don't worry about long term "value". it's only a game.

[Brutis_Buckeye]

the people that use real life cash to make big purchases for virtual items, are just sad. I personally want a Bill Cap, but I dont want to have to pay whatever high price it is, and its sad hearing people that have dozens of them. I want a bills cap just because I think it looks good. And besides, tf2 was about playing a game, not trading. *Sigh* miss the old days.

[AO.Cazzo]

Originally Posted by Brutis_Buckeye

the people that use real life cash to make big purchases for virtual items, are just sad. I personally want a Bill Cap, but I dont want to have to pay whatever high price it is, and its sad hearing people that have dozens of them. I want a bills cap just because I think it looks good. And besides, tf2 was about playing a game, not trading. *Sigh* miss the old days.

if you've been playing since the old days you must have accumulated a good deal of metal. bill's go for ~7 keys now, so just trade for keys with your metal and get one. don't complain about people spending real life money to get what they want, you could too, or you could just go about getting it for free by trading metal.

[Williamgood]

You apparently haven't seen what people spend in other games..

[CommanderDude7]

Blah blah blah trading ruined tf2 blah blah blah end is nigh blah blah blah whine whine whine. Same old, same old.

[Crayv]

The bubble will burst the day the trailer for TF3 is released.

Though if they say your stuff from TF2 will be imported into the TF3 somehow.... expect things to skyrocket.

[A Ghost]

Our national debt is 16 trillion, so who cares.

[Parralelex]

The only thing that doesn't have the potential to crash is keys. Keys have real value, and real purpose. They're kind of the gold in tf2, they're the stabalizer. Buds don't serve any purpose other than to wear, and they can't be bought except from other people. So they have the potential to crash, just as they have the potential to rise dramatically. Considering I'm not an economy guy, and not people who study the economy full time have the real world even close to figured out, much less virtual worlds, I'm not gonna say that it has to crash. But I am gonna say that buying things like bill's or buds are riskier than buying keys, because keys are based in something more than buds are.

I'm actually kind of surprised, now that I think about it. Keys have real life value, so they're less risky, so there's less potential for profit from buying them. Buds have no real life value, so they're riskier, so there's much more potential for profit from buying them. That's actually kind of cool.

[AO.Cazzo]

Originally Posted by Parralelex

The only thing that doesn't have the potential to crash is keys. Keys have real value, and real purpose. They're kind of the gold in tf2, they're the stabalizer. Buds don't serve any purpose other than to wear, and they can't be bought except from other people. So they have the potential to crash, just as they have the potential to rise dramatically. Considering I'm not an economy guy, and not people who study the economy full time have the real world even close to figured out, much less virtual worlds, I'm not gonna say that it has to crash. But I am gonna say that buying things like bill's or buds are riskier than buying keys, because keys are based in something more than buds are.

I'm actually kind of surprised, now that I think about it. Keys have real life value, so they're less risky, so there's less potential for profit from buying them. Buds have no real life value, so they're riskier, so there's much more potential for profit from buying them. That's actually kind of cool.

eh, im not sure I agree with you. Keys have "real life value" because Valve has set a price on them ($2.49). However, you can go purchase keys from a trader for $1.50-1.70. Obviously, the price from a trader will never exceed $2.49 but their pricing is still at the whim of the market.

The "value" keys have to players in the game is only that they can be used to open crates and therefore receive strange items, tf2 tools, hats, or unusual hats. The market value is entirely dependent upon a purchaser's desire to gain one of these items from a crate, taking in to account the probability of receiving such item.

I guess all I'm saying is that even the "real life value" you ascribe to keys, isn't really as stable as you make it seem.

edit: 1,500 posts, woo!