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Old 12-16-2012, 08:01 AM   #1
Selbi
 
 
 
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"Keys for 3 Refined? Are traders going insane now?" Haha, I say.

So, yesterday I got rid of my last piece of metal and wanted to get new for my keys. So I go on Outpost, create the trade and think to myself "Well, I don't need it right now either, so I'm setting the price at 3 Refined. I can wait a few days.".

Well, it appears I'm a slowpoke, because the price has already passed 3 Refined. In less than 60 seconds I had 11 invites. ELEVEN. And it don't stop right there, I continued to get new invites even after the trade was already done, although I made it pretty clear that I'm not selling keys at the moment. I kept the trade open so I don't have to create a new trade when I need to (the trade in question).

So I check what the average seller is asking for. What I saw made my jaw touch the floor: Prices ranging from 3.33 Refined to 4 Refined. Just to think that we complained about keys raising to 2.77 Refined a few days ago.

What will the future look like and when will that future be?
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:03 AM   #2
BurningBalls
 
 
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Selbi View Post
What will the future look like and when will that future be?
Seems to increase by 0.33 (1 reclaimed) every year, usually after Halloween.

From 2.33 to 2.66 to 3.00.

Because the amount of Metal in circulation is rising a LOT faster than the increase in the number of Keys.

Metal drops like crazy for mass-account users, and only gets taken out of circulation when 3 Refined is used to fabricate headwear, which is easier/cheaper to do with craft hats anyway. Keys on the other hand need to be purchased to be put into circulation, and they get taken out of circulation a lot when they are used up opening crates.

Last edited by BurningBalls: 12-16-2012 at 08:05 AM.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:04 AM   #3
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Metal constanty is being added due to weapon drops. So eventualy keys can reach a value of 10 refined.

The only way to stop that is by having items that can only be made by metal which are extremely expensive. But even then, at some point those items might be devalued. We had hats, and we all know how much they cost these days.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:04 AM   #4
Selbi
 
 
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BurningBalls View Post
Seems to increase by 0.33 (1 reclaimed) every year, usually after Halloween.

From 2.33 to 2.66 to 3.00.
You don't understand, it didn't climb from 2.66 to 3.00, it climbed from 2.66 to 3.33 and more in less than a quarter year!
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:05 AM   #5
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It's a bubble that will pop eventually. Backpack.tf helps artificially raise the price. Since TF2OP traders usually use spreadsheet + a little bit, when the spreadsheet updates, they add a little more to their prices. Eventually keys will crash just like the BMOC did.

I remember when keys were 2.33 for the longest time.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:07 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Selbi View Post
You don't understand, it didn't climb from 2.66 to 3.00, it climbed from 2.66 to 3.33 and more in less than a quarter year!
It's not a quarter of a year, Halloween was just the "trigger". It was building up before then, just waiting for the right excuse.

And the current price now seems to average around 3 Refined, not 3.33 (though of course there are a lot of people selling it for above market price).
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:08 AM   #7
Cuttlefishes
 
 
 
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Dear god, 4 ref?!
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:09 AM   #8
Batty_Batterson
 
 
 
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I miss the days when you could get a key for a rec ;(
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:49 AM   #9
FedrisEnchanter
 
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I miss 2.33...
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:51 AM   #10
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I miss one refined for a key. (Right after Mannconomy)
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:58 AM   #11
TheLastTemplar
 
 
 
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This is exactly why I haven't bought a key with metal in weeks. I'm not convinced this price increase is based on anything outside of greed.
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Old 12-16-2012, 08:59 AM   #12
WorstPlayerEver
 
 
 
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I think that there is a bigger problem, the Marketplace. Before it, you could only get keys by buying from Mann Co., trading items for them, or buying from 3rd party sites that were somewhat risky. It was harder to trust the outsiders, so more people went for the more expensive, but safe 2.50 Mann price.

Now that people can safely buy the keys for less from market, people are flocking to it. Keys are being used, but until Market price is the same as Mann Co. price, no one will buy from the store, meaning less keys in circulation.
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Old 12-16-2012, 09:00 AM   #13
Simon >:C
 
 
 
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On the one hand, I assume this is because of the Market making key-for-money sales more common. On the other hand, what the 4 refined?
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